Thursday, January 3, 2013

Stages of collapse

Will the United States collapse? Let's hope not. But since it is a possibility, it is a good idea to recognize the stages of collapse so that we may be prepared. The collapse of the former Soviet Union occurred quite rapidly, and we all know how that went down.

(The following is borrowed from http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html)

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

Does any of that sound familiar? I suggest that you read the rest of Mr. Orlov's article, which further explains these five stages. Interestingly, he maintains that the people of the USSR were better prepared to cope with collapse than we are. I think he's right. 

Boy Scout Motto: Be Prepared

No comments:

Post a Comment