The refugee story has hardly begun. There will be, on conservative estimates, another million arriving via Turkey this year – and maybe more. The distribution quotas proposed by Germany, and resisted by many states in eastern Europe, are already a fiction and will fade into insignificance as the next wave comes.
Germany itself will face critical choices: if you’re suddenly running a budget deficit to meet the needs of asylum seekers, how do you justify not spending on the infrastructure that’s supposed to serve German citizens, which has crumbled through underinvestment in the Angela Merkel era?
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All around the world (with the possible exception of China and Russia) refugees will continue to be the big issue this year.
Germany claims that Donald Trump is the most dangerous man in the world (see http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/donald-trump-is-the-most-dangerous-man-in-the-world-a-1075060.html), but most of the developed world will see the rise of nationalistic movements as the tide of refugees and other migrants swells.
When nation states collapse and market states take their place, everything will be judged in terms of its market value. Refugees have a market value when they can be used to destabilize nation states, forcing those bankrupt entities to sell off their assets in a vain attempt to keep themselves alive. But once the market states have fallen, refugees (and everyone else who doesn't have a job) will be considered useless eaters.
Trump has not and will not kill anyone. The leaders of the coming markets states will be complicit in the starvation of millions, if not trillions of people.