Here is a remarkable essay which presents a VERY scary scenario. When you click on the link, it will translate from Russian to English, so be patient:
If it doesn't work, then here is one of the key takeaways:
During the Soviet/Cold War era, we used to think in terms of mutual assured destruction.
But today the situation is somewhat different. The number of nuclear warheads has become such that an exchange of nuclear strikes cannot lead to a guaranteed death of all living things. The number of carriers of nuclear weapons has fallen to such levels that even after a massive strike inflicted by all forces in the Northern Hemisphere, wildlife, untouched cities and towns, and people will remain. A nuclear war without the death of all participants has become possible.
The second problem is the combat stability of the Russian nuclear forces in their current configuration. Russia was able to revive the Missile Attack Warning System (SPRN). The missiles that are supposed to strike back are regularly updated.
But now our fleet has fewer ships than Japan. There is no possibility to block all dangerous water areas with the actions of anti-submarine forces. And this means that, as in the case of the Arabian Sea, the Americans and the British, who can hold them, will freely turn to strike where the missiles reach us too quickly. For example, in the North, Norwegian, Barents, Mediterranean and Arabian seas.
Russian strategic submarines are few in number today compared to Soviet times. Together with the qualitative superiority of the US Navy, this creates a situation where the Americans can destroy our submarines just before the start of the attack. This, alas, is a well-known fact. At the same time, 44% of all strategic nuclear warheads in Russia are deployed on submarines. And almost all of them are in two (!) Fleet bases vulnerable to the first strike. Russian strategic aviation, on the other hand, has never learned to fight like the American one, and is not a means of a guaranteed retaliatory strike.
The combination of these factors creates a technical possibility for the United States to launch a successful disarming nuclear strike on Russia without receiving a strike in response that is significant in terms of losses. At the same time, the intensity of anti-Russian propaganda is such that the Western layman does not have to substantiate anything, from this point of view, everything is ready there.
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There are a number of reasons the US now thinks they can "win" a nuclear war, but only if they are the ones who strike first.
This creates a terrible dilemma for the Russians. With US forces on their doorstep, they have no reaction time. This almost puts them in a situation where THEY have to strike first to have a chance of survival.
That is why they pleaded with us to not put nuclear weapons on their border. It was as much for OUR protection as it is for theirs.
No matter what occurs, keep in mind none of this would have happened if the US had not instigated it. To say Putin's recent actions are "unprovoked" is a GIANT LIE, which only an ignorant populace could believe. And boy, are we ignorant.
Get ready to duck and cover. "Our" nuclear arsenal is controlled by psychopaths who think we're all useless people anyway. G-d only knows what they might do.
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