The Future Of Electricity

I receive my residential electricity via PJM Interconnection, one of the largest distributors in the US. You can read about them here:

https://www.pjm.com/

When I first looked them up a few years ago, the monitoring agencies said they had access to sufficient resources to service their existing grid and handle expected growth. But earlier this year PJM announced the possibility of near- and long-term shortages.

What happened? A few things:

• nuclear power plants in their supply network either shutdown or were never completed (e.g., Davis-Besse, Perry 1 and 2, Zimmer);
• fossil fuel power plants in their network shutdown (e.g., Zimmer); and
• load growth exploded, mainly from large server farms (especially in the Washington DC area)

The so-called "green" agenda will lead to the shutdown of even MORE fossil fuel plants, while AI companies (and the US government) will demand more and more power for their server farms.

The solution? Build more nuclear power plants and restart ones which have been prematurely shutdown. You can read about such claims here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-energy-secretary-granholm-urges-need-small-modular-reactors-power-ai-data-centers-cnbc

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/nextera-evaluating-restart-iowas-only-nuclear-plant-next-ai-trade-gains-steam

But how realistic are such "plans"? Here are some things to consider:

• At least two NSSS companies (GE and Westinghouse) long ago developed mid-sized modular style plants, none of which were ever built. I know because I worked on the design certification for one of them, the GE SBWR.
• The small modular plants currently being considered will be of novel and relatively untested designs. Maybe not such a good idea for facilities to be located all over the country.
• You can't just walk in and flip the "on" switch to start up a mothballed nuclear plant. Unless all the required maintenance has been performed since it last operated, the environmental qualifications of safety-related equipment may have lapsed and need to be re-established. I know because I worked on a similar project (Browns Ferry).
• After all these years, the US still does not have a working plan for the long-term disposal and storage of nuclear waste. The new and restarted plants all will generate more high level waste (with some of it being MIXED waste, an even greater headache), which probably will be kept onsite with the associated reactors, possibly forever.

In addition, the US was once the leader in nuclear energy; not any more. Many of the companies which built our industry no longer exist or have moved on to other products and services, and very few universities still graduate students with degrees in nuclear engineering and related fields.

And as a side note, for the most part our existing nuclear plants which have been shutdown suffered that fate because they were too expensive to operate. I suspect that if and when they DO restart, the operating costs will be forcibly passed on to the general public by Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, etc. ... something state regulatory agencies collectively were not allowing.

So in summary, I believe a two-tiered system is being created - a nuclear powered one for the big AI companies and server farms in general, and another "sustainably powered" one for the rest of us - BOTH of which will be paid for by the general public AND which will be much more expensive than what we're paying now. And I doubt any of the persons currently vying for the White House give a damn, if they're even aware of what's happening.

Are you happy now? I'm not.