The Keys To The White House

What are the Thirteen Keys and where do they stand today?

They are 13 key factors that determine whether or not the incumbent party will be re-elected. When five or fewer of the Keys are false, or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. Here are the 13 Keys and their standing for the 2016 election, as of September 2015:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (2016 -- FALSE)

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.(2016 -- UNDECIDED)

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (2016 -- FALSE)

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (2016 -- UNDECIDED)

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (2016 -- TRUE)

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (2016 -- TRUE)

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (2016 -- FALSE)

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (2016 -- TRUE)

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (2016 -- TRUE)

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (2016 -- TRUE)

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (2016 -- UNDECIDED)

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (2016 -- FALSE)

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (2016 -- TRUE)

Can you please summarize how The Keys stand today?

I predicted the 2012 election in January 2010 and the 2008 election in February 2006. It is the undecided keys that make this election difficult to call.

Currently the incumbent Democrats have 4 keys turned against them, 2 keys short of a predicted defeat. However, 3 keys remain undecided: incumbent party Contest Key, Third Party Key, and Foreign Policy/Military Success Key. If 2 of these 3, undecided keys turn against the Democrats, they will be predicted losers next November. Otherwise they will be predicted winners.

You can read the rest @
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Climate-Change-and-the-201-by-Karyn-Strickler-2016-Elections_Agreement_Climate_Climate-Change-150916-922.html

But note well these "keys" predict the popular vote and not the Electoral College vote, which is the one that really counts.