Let's go with the odds. According to this report, the government of Ukraine has 60 BUK antiaircraft systems, while the "rebels" might have had 1:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/07/did-rebels-have-buk-system-how-about.html
And unless serial numbers can be matched, I don't know how anyone can prove whose missiles hit what.
By the way, have you ever watched Anthony Lawson's video "9:11/The Unidentified Murder Weapons"? Not one of the four aircraft allegedly used in the 9/11 attacks was forensically matched to the wreckage at the sites of the attacks:
http://youtu.be/YT28hCyXsLs [the "aircraft ID" portion starts @ minute 7:00]
I guess that CSI stuff only happens on TV shows. In matters of national security, allegations and fantasies are good enough.
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